Developing a Global Mechanism for Atrocity Forecasting and Prevention

Despite world governments’ acceptance of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine in 2005, the international community has struggled to generate real and timely action to prevent atrocities, even when there has been ample early warning. To help make R2P a more lived reality, the Stanley Center focused its 47th UN Issues conference on how to strengthen atrocity forecasting and improve coordination of preventive efforts.

This brief summarizes the primary findings of the conference, which convened representatives from multilateral institutions, government, and civil society. During the dialogue, conducted March 9-11, 2016, in Tarrytown, New York, conferees reflected on strides the international community has made in strengthening tools and mechanisms to identify and prevent atrocities and explored how to better leverage them to generate action.

A number of key recommendations resulted from the conference, including initiating early and sustained engagement in at-risk countries; assessing the efficacy of early action; strengthening multilateral capacity for atrocity prevention; and creating a multistakeholder consortium for prevention.