Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear Conflict

This workshop will focus on the effects of recent changes in the global information ecosystem, partially driven by increased dependence on social media for information, on leaders and publics. Specifically, we want to explore how this ecosystem shapes the behavior of publics and leaders by affecting their perceptions and decisions before and during international crises.

Addressing this issue is important because of its implication for international crisis stability and the potential for nuclear conflict. Existing work on crisis stability assumes rational actors and focuses on how different capabilities and nuclear postures affect crisis dynamics. Leaders and publics are now exposed to greater volumes of misinformation and disinformation. At digital speed, and given some leaders’ consumption and employment of social media, this could have implications for stability in nuclear deterrent relationships.

This workshop intends to address how impulsive, misinformed, or manipulated decision-making could affect crisis stability and conflict escalation.